June 30, 2009
Shares of ISHARES Lehman 20Yr (NYSE: TLT) have been rising over the past two weeks, after a decline that lasted almost seven months and loped some 28% off share prices.
The question is; are the declines over and are higher prices ahead?
Though the advance seems solid, we do question the lows reached back on June 10. Those lows did not reverse at support, but instead broke well below support before turning higher. Typically, when support is broken, the declines have not ended.
The advance appears to have more than acceptable risk in it and if a bullish position is taken, we would recommend a close trailing stop. There could still be more downside ahead.
The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) ETF Timing Strategy holds a position in TLT.
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