Market Timing Pro

Correction Ahead for ISHARES Barclays 20+ Yr Treas (NYSE: TLT)

May 23, 2012 (FinancialWire) (By Frank Kollar)

Shares of ISHARES Barclays 20+ Yr Treas (NYSE: TLT) have reached historical highs and are due for a reversal.

In fact, that reversal may have already started.

TLT reached an historical high of $125.03 back on October 4, 2011. It was an intra-day high not a closing high. The ETF went into a tailspin after, dropping 12% to the $110.00 level in a few weeks.

Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com

We are looking at the same situation now, with TLT running up to $124.44 intra-day last week and after three days at this level; TLT gapped down at the open on Tuesday, May 22 and will close lower, near $122.00.

The odds of a decline back to $110.00 are not likely, but a drop to the $116.00 to $117.00 level appears to be probable and an emotional trade lower possible.

A short trade at current levels with a buy stop at just above $125.00 would make a low risk trade.

The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) ETF Timing Strategy does not currently hold a position in TLT.

Time to Buy Starbucks Corp (NASDAQ: SBUX)

May 22, 2012

Starbucks Corp (NASDAQ: SBUX) has pulled back over 14% from its prior highs. Is this a good time to buy this popular company's stock?

Starbucks is the leading fresh coffee and specialty coffee brewer plus sells high quality whole coffee beans and coffee related equipment.

Starbucks rarely declines as much as this current correction. It is always possible that lower lows are ahead, but if the line we had to wait in this morning to get a cup of coffee is a sign, then the current levels is actually a great buying opportunity.

Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com

With support just below the correction lows, at $51.25, we would consider Starbucks a solid buy at this time. Using a tight stop below support at $51.00, it is also a very low risk trade.

Support is at about $51.25.

The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) Stock Timing Strategy does not have a position in Starbucks.

Frank Kollar has been timing the financial markets since 1982, with online service since 1996. He is a dedicated trend timer and his strategies exited the markets before the crash in 1987 as well as the bear market in 2000 through 2002. During the 2000-2002 bear market and the 2008-2009 bear market his bearish positions resulted in substantial gains, all achieved by trading trends.

Family Dollar Stores Inc (NYSE: FDO) Holding Up Well

May 17, 2012

Shares of Family Dollar Stores Inc (NYSE: FDO) have declined along with most issues as the stock market in April and May corrects. But the decline has been very modest.

Family Dollar operates general merchandise retail discount stores. Its products are categorized under consumables, home products, apparel and accessories, and seasonal and electronic products.

Family Dollar has lost only about 2% from its highs on a closing basis, and is up some 1.3% on Wednesday, May 16 as the stock market is again lower.

Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com

We recommend a bullish position in FDO and with a sell stop just below $65.00 would be a low risk trade.

If there is further downside ahead, FDO has a solid support level at $65.00.

The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) Stock Timing Strategy does have a position in Family Dollar Stores.

Frank Kollar has been timing the financial markets since 1982, with online service since 1996. He is a dedicated trend timer and his strategies exited the markets before the crash in 1987 as well as the bear market in 2000 through 2002. During the 2000-2002 bear market and the 2008-2009 bear market his bearish positions resulted in substantial gains, all achieved by trading trends.

All Time Highs for Market Vector Biotech (AMEX: BBH) Says

May 15, 2012

Shares of the ETF Market Vector Biotech (AMEX: BBH) have recovered from three
months of sideways trading and have broken out to new highs. And this is during
a market correction.

BBH had a 3 for 1 split back in February.

BBH is well above its March 3, 2000 rally closing high of $40.46 (pre-split
it was $121.38). The bear market in 2000-2002 decimated all stock sectors and
especially Biotech. Most sectors remain well below those 2000 highs, but BBH has
now far exceeded them.

                                Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com

BBH broke above its three months of sideways trading in the first week of
April and while most sectors have stayed in correction mode, BBH has been moving
steadily higher.

For those who see new highs as bullish, and we are on that list, BBH is a
strong buy.

A stop at $44.50, just below the May 4 low, creates a tight stop and a low
risk trade.

There is also very strong support at $42.00 a share.

The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) ETF Timing Strategy holds a position
in Market Vector Biotech.

Frank Kollar has been timing the financial markets since 1982, with online
service since 1996. He is a dedicated trend timer and his strategies exited the
markets before the crash in 1987 as well as the bear market in 2000 through
2002. During the 2000-2002 bear market and the 2008-2009 bear market his bearish
positions resulted in substantial gains, all achieved by trading trends.

Bullish Reversal Day for Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)

May 10, 2012

Only Monday we wrote that shares of Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)) were in a sustained downtrend and would likely move lower still.

On Tuesday, GDX gapped down at the open and closed with another substantial loss, in this case just a fraction above $40.

Apparently this was support for GDX as round numbers often are and on Wednesday, May 9, the stock has posted a bullish outside reversal day.

Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com

A bullish outside reversal day is one in which the stock trades at lower lows than the day before, and closes at higher highs than the day before. When it occurs after a sustained downtrend as GDX has been in, it is a bullish indicator.

The bullish indicator may be short term in nature, forecasting only several days of advancing prices. It could also mean a tradable bottom is in place. There is no way to know at this point so any trades should be placed with tight stops.

IF GDX was to close above $45 a share in coming weeks, we would be looking at a potential new upward trend.

The Fibtimer.com (www.fibtimer.com) ETF Timing Strategy does not currently have a position in Market Vectors Gold Miners.

Frank Kollar has been timing the financial markets since 1982, with online service since 1996. He is a dedicated trend timer and his strategies exited the markets before the crash in 1987 as well as the bear market in 2000 through 2002. During the 2000-2002 bear market and the 2008-2009 bear market his bearish positions resulted in substantial gains, all achieved by trading trends.

Ominous Chart for Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)

May 8, 2012

Shares of Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)) continue to move lower, having already broken below an important support level.

GDX has already moved into bear market territory after dropping from highs above $65 in September, 2011 to lows around $$44 a share, a 32% decline to date. Bear market erritory is usually considered a loss of greater than 20%.

But the chart looks like the lows will continue. In April, GDX broke below a declining trend support line, leaving behind any logical hope for a change in trend.

Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com

The trend continues to the downside.

Gold bullion is holding above similar support levels but we would suggest that the current selling of gold company shares may be telling us that gold bullion will also soon move lower.

The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) ETF Timing Strategy does not currently have a position in Market Vectors Gold Miners.

Frank Kollar has been timing the financial markets since 1982, with online service since 1996. He is a dedicated trend timer and his strategies exited the markets before the crash in 1987 as well as the bear market in 2000 through 2002. During the 2000-2002 bear market and the 2008-2009 bear market his bearish positions resulted in substantial gains, all achieved by trading trends.

Bearish Reversal for Intel Corp (NASDAQ: INTC)

May 4, 2012

Shares of Intel Corp (NASDAQ: INTC) suffered a bearish outside reversal day on Thursday, May 3. Such days are typically followed by further selling.

A bearish outside reversal day occurs when a stock opens higher and closes lower than the trading range of the preceding day. When it happens at a new rally high, it tends to be followed by more selling over coming days.

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells integrated digital technology platforms primarily in the Asia-Pacific, the Americas, Europe, and Japan. The company has a P/E ratio of 12.2, equal to the average electronics industry P/E ratio and below the S&P 500 P/E ratio of 17.7.

Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com

We do not see a reason for Intel's one day reversal and this may be but a temporary setback in an otherwise strong up-trend for the company's stock.

Intel has strong support at $27.68, its 50-day moving average and at $27.24, its recent correction low reached on April 24.

The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) Stock Timing Strategy currently has a bullish position in Intel.

Frank Kollar has been timing the financial markets since 1982, with online service since 1996. He is a dedicated trend timer and his strategies exited the markets before the crash in 1987 as well as the bear market in 2000 through 2002. During the 2000-2002 bear market and the 2008-2009 bear market his bearish positions resulted in substantial gains, all achieved by trading trends.

New Highs for Dollar Tree Inc (NASDAQ: DLTR)

May 2, 2012,

All the way back in December 2011, we wrote that Dollar Tree Inc (NASDAQ: DLTR) had broken above resistance and appeared headed for considerably higher highs.

At that time, DLTR was at $82 a share.

DLTR is now above $102 a share and continues to move higher with apparently no downside in in the picture for the near future. Even during market declines, DLTR has held value or moved higher.

Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com

We have said it before and we say it again, DLTR is a rising stock with higher highs in its future.

A long position using a tight sell stop at just below $96.50 offers a very low risk trade.

The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) Stock Timing Strategy does have a position in Dollar Tree.

Frank Kollar has been timing the financial markets since 1982, with online service since 1996. He is a dedicated trend timer and his strategies exited the markets before the crash in 1987 as well as the bear market in 2000 through 2002. During the 2000-2002 bear market and the 2008-2009 bear market his bearish positions resulted in substantial gains, all achieved by trading trends.

Starbucks Corp (NASDAQ: SBUX) Buying Opportunity

May 1, 2012

Starbucks Corp (NASDAQ: SBUX has a history of small corrections, but then new highs. Something to keep in mind when watching the stock which is in one of those corrections right now.

Starbucks is the leading fresh coffee and specialty coffee brewer plus sells high quality whole coffee beans and coffee related equipment.

Starbucks has been advancing almost non-stop since November 2008. That is a long time but there is nothing that we can see that would stop the advance now. Starbucks has considerably higher highs in its future.

Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com

When we go to Starbucks in Charlottesville, Virginia, we have to wait on line for our favorite cup of java. When my sister-in-law visits from Colorado, we must drive her to Starbucks every morning. Our coffee pot at home just does not do it for her.

Support is at about $56.25.

The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) Stock Timing Strategy holds a position in Starbucks.

S&P Deposit Receipts (NYSE: SPY) Breaks Resistance

April 27, 2012

Both the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and its tracking ETF the S&P Deposit Receipts (NYSE: SPY) have broken above recent resistance levels.

Over the past several weeks, SPY closed well below its 50-day moving average and had stayed below resistance at 139.00 for twelve trading days.

Wednesday's sharp earnings inspired rally pushed SPY to just above resistance with a close at SPY 139.19.

                              Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com

Thursday's rally confirmed the breakout with an almost 1% advance. Look for SPY to test its highs, at 142.21, in coming days. A breakout above those highs would point to a new leg up for the stock market.

Current support is at SPY 135.94.

The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) ETF Timing Strategy has a position in the S&P 500 SPDRs.

Frank Kollar has been timing the financial markets since 1982, with online service since 1996. He is a dedicated trend timer and his strategies exited the markets before the crash in 1987 as well as the bear market in 2000 through 2002. During the 2000-2002 bear market and the 2008-2009 bear market his bearish positions resulted in substantial gains, all achieved by trading trends.