Market Timing Pro

Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) Tests Support

July 3, 2008

Shares of Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) are again testing support. After bouncing twice from intra-day lows around $164 a share, AAPL did not mount a rally as expected, but instead is again headed for a third test of support.

The $162.73 level must hold if AAPL shares are to move higher in a very bearish market environment. Should the $162.73 level fail, look for declines to the next support at $153.72.

Note AAPL is still outperforming the general market and critical support is down at $144.71, some 14% below Wednesday’s July 2 close. If critical support breaks, start looking at the short side as AAPL will be heading for a test of its 2008 $120 lows.

The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) Stock Timing Strategy has a position in Apple.

Break Out for Shares of Biotech HOLDRS (AMEX: BBH)

July 1, 2008

Last week we wrote that “at Wednesday’s June 25 close, Biotech HOLDRS (AMEX: BBH) was just a fraction below the Fib 61.8% retracement - resistance level of its April-May decline. If Biotech HOLDRS closes above this level, at $170.11 a share, it will be a bullish indicator and will point the way higher.”

On Tuesday, July 1, this level was surpassed to the upside as Biotech HOLDRS put on a huge display of strength on a day when the stock market struggled. Biotech HOLDRS should soon test its prior highs at $176.70 and then make a run for the $182.00 level.

The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) ETF Timing Strategy holds a position in Biotech HOLDRS.

Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) Loses Momentum

July 1, 2008

After reaching the $190 level, shares of Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) moved mostly sideways till June when the current market weakness pulled shares lower, down to $177 intra-day in the Friday, June 13 selloff.

AAPL then rallied, and appeared headed for a breakout. But the rally faded before new highs were reached and as of Monday, June 30, AAPL is at $167.44, new correction lows.

Just below current levels are several strong supports. If AAPL can hold and reverse, we could again see a run for the highs in this popular and heavily traded stock.

Watch the 38.2% retracement level at $162.73, the 50% retracement level at $153.72 and then comes critical support at $144.71. If critical support breaks, start looking at the short side as AAPL will be heading for a test of its 2008 $120 lows.

The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) Stock Timing Strategy has a position in Apple.

Biotech HOLDRS (AMEX: BBH) Hits Critical Resistance

June 26, 2008

Shares of the exchange-traded fund Biotech HOLDRS (AMEX: BBH) have outperformed the stock market over the past several weeks but have now reached a critical resistance level.

A Wednesday’s June 25 close, Biotech HOLDRS was just a fraction below the Fib 61.8% retracement - resistance level of its April-May decline. If Biotech HOLDRS closes above this level, at $170.11 a share, it will be a bullish indicator and will point the way higher for this widely traded ETF, likely to an advance that will challenge the March highs at $176.70 a share.

The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) ETF Timing Strategy holds a position in Biotech HOLDRS.

Shares of Intel Corp (NASDAQ: INTC) Hold at Support

June 25, 2008

Shares of Intel Corp (NASDAQ: INTC) declined from their January-May rally highs over the past month, and appear to have found support at the 50% retracement level, around $21.69 a share. Intel has remained above $22.00 a share since June 11.

With Tuesday’s June 24 closing price at $22.41 that support is only just below current levels. Traders should be watching for a reversal day here to establish a long position. Or a bullish position could be taken using a sell stop just below support.

A close below $21.69 would likely result in further losses, to at least $20.84 a share, the Fib 61.8% retracement level.

The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) Stock Timing Strategy holds a position in Intel Corp.

Starbucks Corp (NASDAQ: SBUX) Hits Skids - Again

June 24, 2008

Shares of Starbucks Corp (NASDAQ: SBUX) reversed from what appeared to be a long awaited rally, from bear market lows, for this very distressed stock.

Starbucks finally made headway to the upside after losing more than half its share value from mid-2006 to mid 2008.

But on Monday June 23, Starbucks dropped like a stone, losing over 5%, on news that top executive in charge of food and beverages, Denny Marie Post, has resigned.

The stock has reversed to the downside and looks like it will again be testing the $15.66 level in coming days. A close below this critical support level would likely result in lower lows, on increasing volume.

Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) currently has a position in Starbucks Corp in its Stock Timing Strategy.

Utilities HOLDRS (AMEX: UTH) Beats Downtrend

June 19, 2008

Shares of Utilities HOLDRS (AMEX: UTH) have not only held up well in the current stock market declines, but have pushed to within a fraction of their 2008 rally highs.

Utilities HOLDRS has gained ground while the stock market has sold off. Wednesday’s June 18 close at $135.53 is just below the prior May closing highs at $136.29. Considering the turmoil in the stock market, this is a solid performance.

If Utilities HOLDRS can close above $137.50 in coming days, look for a continued advance to test the old December 2007 closing highs at $141.63.

The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) ETF Timing Strategy has a position in Utilities HOLDRS.

Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) Shares Rally

June 18, 2008

Shares of Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) were on a tear from March through mid-May adding 58% after bottoming around $120 in the stock market correction.

After reaching the $190 level, AAPL moved mostly sideways till June when the current market weakness pulled shares lower, down to $177 intra-day in the Friday, June 13 selloff.

But again AAPL is packing on the gains, adding some 5% this week alone. During Tuesday’s June 17 market decline while the Dow dropped triple digits, AAPL added 2.5% in share value.

Look for AAPL to test its highs at $200 a share in coming weeks, and if surpassed, the new target for this advance will be $226.76 a share.

The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) Stock Timing Strategy has a position in Apple.

Downtrend Continues for Streettracks Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD)

June 17, 2008

Although shares of Streettracks Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) rallied on Monday, June 16, they remain mired in a downtrend that may have further to go.

Three weeks ago Gold Shares rallied to exactly the 50% retracement of its entire March to May correction, and not only was unable to surpass it, but reversed hard to the downside. Since that reversal from resistance, Gold Shares has been unable to mount a rally that holds.

Gold Shares will likely decline to $82.00 a share before it is able to make a sustained move higher. Should Gold Shares close below $82.00, look for continued declines to around $77.66 which is long term support.

The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) ETF Timing Strategy may have a position in Streettracks Gold Shares.

Oil Service HOLDRS (AMEX: OIH) Double Top?

June 12, 2008

Shares of Oil Service HOLDRS (AMEX: OIH) reached $220 on May 21 and pulled back. OIH tried again on June 6 but stopped at the same level and has been pulling back since.

Is this a double top that is forecasting a decline in OIH prices over coming weeks? If OIH closes below $200 a share that may very well be the case.

But the bullish case is also strong. If OIH can close above $220 a share, which is a strong Fib resistance level (fib 127.2%), the way will be clear for a run to the next resistance level at $239.91.

Watch for closes either above $220 or below $200 for clues to the direction of prices in OIH in coming weeks.

The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) ETF Timing Strategy has a position in Oil Service HOLDRS.