Market Timing Pro

Market Vectors Biotech (NYSE: BBH) Headed Higher?

March 28, 2013 (by Frank Kollar)

After rising from $53.00 in early January, Market Vectors Biotech (NYSE: BBH) hit a new closing high on March 15th at $63.20.

The following day the widely traded ETF suffered a bearish outside reversal day and two day later reached an intra-day correction low of $61.35.

BBH has been erasing those losses, modest though they were, in the seven trading days since. The ETF is now trading only a fraction below its March 15th intra-day high at $63.36.

As this analysis was being written, BBH was trading at $63.20.

Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com

BBH has a good chance of posting a new high during the next few sessions. If it can close above $64.00 a share. look for a breakout rally over coming weeks.

There is no target that we can see as the ETF is at new highs. We would set a 5% trailing stop if this trade is taken.

The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) ETF Timing Strategy does have a current position in Market Vectors Biotech.

Can Nasdaq 100 Powershares Trust (NYSE: QQQ) Break Out?

March 27, 2013 (by Frank Kollar)

It is somewhat puzzling that the Nasdaq 100 Powershares Trust (NYSE: QQQ) is still being held below the $68-$69 level.

Two weeks ago we were looking for a potential breakout and still prices remain at the same level, with lots of volatility, but held by an invisible hand below resistance.

Should QQQ close decisively above this resistance, there is again resistance at $69.68. But this will be the really important level to watch.

We would be careful to enter a new position unless there is a clear bullish breakout. A bullish outside reversal day or a decisive close above $69.00 a share.

A close above $69.68 or a decisive close above $69.00 could result in rally all the way to $73.10.

Chart
Courtesy of StockCharts.com

While the other major indexes are in full rally mode, QQQ has been having difficulty at each resistance level it encounters. Watch $69.00 for a potential breakout that could launch a solid rally, if the breakout occurs.

The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) ETF Timing Strategy does have a current position in the Nasdaq 100 Powershares Trust.

Still Bearish on SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD)

March 26, 2013 (by Frank Kollar)

Shares of SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) managed a small rally up to about $156.80 last week.

That was the high reached back on february 26th and it is also the the lower level of the gap- open back on February 15th when prices plunged.

Those are two reason to see the $15.80-16.00 level as resistance and also good reason to look at the failed short term rally that tested this level as another bearish indicator looking forward.

We are looking for another test of the February 20th correction lows at $150.84 over coming days.

Chart
Courtesy of StockCharts.com

A close below that low would be a sign of more lows ahead, with the end of this correction in gold not yet in sight.

But for the sake of those who like trying to do so, we will peg the bottom of this decline around the $145.00 level.

With share prices holding just above the $150 level which acted as support back in June, 2012, we are looking for one more break lower, and then a quick selloff to the $145 level.

If we get a bullish reversal pattern near the $150.00 level, it may signal a bottom. This of course is where the risk comes in.

The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) ETF Timing Strategy does not have a position in the SPDR Gold Shares.

 

Potential Short Sale for Dentsply Intl Inc (NASDAQ: XRAY)

March 20, 2013 (by Frank Kollar)

There is a potential short sale set up on the daily chart for shares of Dentsply Intl Inc (NASDAQ: XRAY).

The company designs, develops, manufactures and markets a full range of professional dental products, including dental implants, endodontic instruments and materials, orthodontic appliances.

Dentsply just completed its acquisition of acquisition of Astra Tech AB from AstraZeneca. Shares prices have not responded positively.

But our bearish view is based on the daily chart.

XRAY has a very well defined double top in place after reaching its highest level since 2007.

If shares close below the prior correction lows at about $40.75, we would be looking for continued selling over coming weeks.

Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com

A short sale at a close below $40.75 would be a fairly low risk trade with a buy stop near $43.00. Downside target at about $36.00 a share.

The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) Stock Timing Strategy does not have a position in Dentsply Intl.

Still Room to Rally for Watsco Inc (NYSE: WSO)

March 19, 2013 (by Frank Kollar)

Shares of Watsco Inc (NYSE: WSO), up almost one percent on Monday, March 18th (at the time this article was written), should still have room to rise in coming weeks.

The company distributes equipment, including residential central air conditioners, gas, electric and oil furnaces, commercial air conditioning and heating equipment and systems.

Watsco's fourth-quarter earnings rose 10% as improved same-store sales contributed to stronger-than-expects revenue growth in last week's quarterly report.

More importantly, shares rallied on the news on double the normal volume.

Chart
Courtesy of StockCharts.com

At over $83 a share, shares are pricey but that does not mean they cannot go higher. Just ahead is resistance at $84.55 a share. If WSO can make a solid close above this level, shares should then continue higher and test $89.90.

The $89.90 level would be a good place to tighten up on your sell-stop.

The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) Stock Timing Strategy does not have a position in Watsco Inc.

Current SPX and NDX Market Timing Report

Our current SPX and NDX market timing report (free twice
monthly) has just been posted here:

http://www.fibtimer.com/2x_reports/2013_0317_2x_report.html

 

Breakout Ahead for Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM)

March 14, 2013 (by Frank Kollar)

It was exactly one month ago that we wrote about Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM). Shares had just broken above our first target at $30.54 and we were looking for higher highs ahead.

ADM did continue to rally, reaching $33.00 a share before succumbing to a round of profit-taking. Prices dipped to below $32 and share in late February but have been rising since, closing on Wednesday, March 13th at $32.93.

If shares make a decisive close above $33.00, look for a continued advance to $34.00 a share. That was where the last major rally stalled back in May, 2012.

But old highs are there to be tested and sometimes broken. If ADM can close above $34.00 a share, the next target is all the way up at $36.59 a share.

Chart
Courtesy of StockCharts.com

This has been a strong advance for ADM and we are looking for resistance levels to continue to be broken as this bull market continues.

The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) Stock Timing Strategy does have a position in Archer Daniels Midlands.

Nasdaq 100 Powershares Trust (NYSE: QQQ) Again Struggles at Resistance

March 13, 2013 (by Frank Kollar)

Shares of the Nasdaq 100 Powershares Trust (NYSE: QQQ) spent two months struggling to surpass resistance around the $68.00 level. Now that the ETF has pushed above this level, it is struggling again.

This time it is the $68.88 level and share prices have remained below for six trading days.

Should QQQ close decisively above this resistance, there is again resistance at $69.68. But this will be the really important level to watch.

A close above $69.68 could result in rally all the way to $73.10.

Chart Courtesy of
StockCharts.com

While the other major indexes are in full rally mode, QQQ has been having difficulty at each resistance level it encounters. Watch $69.68 for a potential breakout that could launch a solid rally, if the breakout occurs.

The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) ETF Timing Strategy does have a current position in the Nasdaq 100 Powershares Trust.

Market Vectors Biotech,BBH,Critical Resistance

March 12, 2013 (by Frank Kollar)

While a top in a bull rally cannot be forecasted ahead of time, there are levels that traders need to be watching. One such is now being tested by Market Vectors Biotech (NYSE: BBH).

BBH spent a month at the $58.53 resistance level before blasting through in the end of February.

BBH is now at what we see at critical resistance, $61.00 to $62.00 a share.

A decisive close and then continued upside would confirm the current rally and forecast even higher highs ahead.

Chart Courtesy of
StockCharts.com

But if BBH begins a pullback, this is where we expect to see it start. A reversal day or inability to bush well above $62.00 a share in the next week would be a bearish sign for this ETF and the entire sector.

That said, we are and have been long BBH and continue to hold a bullish position. If we make a decisive close above current levels we could see considerably higher highs ahead.

BBH is currently at $63.38, just fractionally above resistance.

The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) ETF Timing Strategy does have a current position in the Market Vectors Biotech.

IShares 20+ Year Treasuries (NYSE: TLT) Testing Support

March 7, 2013 (by Frank Kollar)

Since reaching rally highs near $132 a share back in July, 2012, long term bonds have been moving steadily lower. Two weeks ago, the ETF IShares 20+ Year Treasuries (NYSE: TLT) made a quick surge higher, closing above $119 a share.

Since that quick rally, TLT has been losing ground and over the past for trading sessions has dropped precipitously, erasing all the initial gains.

Now TLT is back at strong support near $116 a share. Support is at about $15.75 a share.

Chart Courtesy of
StockCharts.com

This support level has held since back in early February and was tested several times during that month.

What happens if TLT breaks support at $15.75?

A decisive break of this level would likely result in steep losses in coming weeks that could reach the $14.50 level.

The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) ETF Timing Strategy does not have a current position in the IShares 20+ Year Treasuries.